Portrait

Software companies with customer concentration and weakening moats

This is ten software companies that came up when I ran a mosaic framework searching for software companies with high customer concentration, rising competition and narrowing moats.

1. Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

  • Business: Sells B2B credit-scoring solutions (the FICO Score, incl. Score 10/10T) plus decisioning and analytics software. (FICO FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: The three consumer-reporting bureaus (Experian, TransUnion, Equifax) were 51% of FY2025 revenue and 63–64% in the two most recent FY2026 quarters, each individually >10%. (FICO FY2025 10-K; FY2026 Q2/Q3 10-Qs)
  • Competition: VantageScore — the bureaus' own JV product — is priced ~$1/score vs. FICO's ~$65 all-in, with TransUnion's mortgage-inquiry usage rising from <5% to ~30% within 2026. (FICO FY2025 10-K; TransUnion Q2 2026 earnings call)

2. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

  • Business: Operates a cloud-based AI lending marketplace (underwriting/credit decisioning) for banks and credit unions, chiefly unsecured personal loans. (UPST FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: One lending partner ("Customer A") was 33% of FY2025 revenue, and the top three partners were 61% of revenue / 83% of originations. (UPST FY2025 10-K)
  • Competition: Competes with in-house bank models, FICO-based decisioning, and rivals like Pagaya, Zest AI, Open Lending and Blend; WSFS wound down/divested its Upstart program in 2025. (UPST FY2025 10-K; WSFS FY2025 10-K)

3. Innodata Inc. (INOD)

  • Business: Provides AI training/post-training data, model evaluation, alignment/safety, and AI-enabled data platforms (DDS segment). (Innodata FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: One unnamed DDS customer was ~58% of FY2025 revenue (48% in FY2024); 63% of receivables sat with a single customer at year-end. (Innodata FY2025 10-K)
  • Competition: Names Appen, CloudFactory, Surge AI, Scale AI, Turing and Mercor as direct rivals, with largely at-will contracts (30–90 day termination). (Innodata FY2025 10-K)

4. DLocal Limited (DLO)

  • Business: Single-platform ("One dLocal") cross-border payments infrastructure — pay-ins and pay-outs for global enterprise merchants across 44 emerging markets. (DLO FY2025 20-F; company primer)
  • Customer concentration: Top 10 merchants were 61% of FY2025 revenue (60–62% over three years), with two customers each individually >10%. (DLO FY2025 20-F)
  • Competition: Competes with Adyen, Stripe, Nuvei, EBANX, PayU and Rapyd (Adyen's own primer groups dLocal with cross-border specialists); former parent AstroPay became a direct competitor in 2025. (DLO FY2025 20-F; Adyen company primer)

5. Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)

  • Business: Sells software-based broadband access (cOS virtualized CMTS) and video-delivery solutions to cable/telco operators. (HLIT FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: One customer was 54% of FY2025 revenue and the top 10 were 84%; the Q3 10-Q names Comcast as the largest (39–43%). (HLIT FY2025 10-K; HLIT Q3 2025 10-Q)
  • Competition: Faces Cisco (cBR-8), CommScope/ARRIS, Casa Systems, Nokia and Vecima — whose ENTRA vCMTS recently won Cox, a live displacement in the same category. (HLIT company primer; Vecima Networks Q4 2025 earnings call)

6. Fractal Analytics Limited (FRACTAL)

  • Business: India-based enterprise AI/analytics services and SaaS company (Fractal.ai services segment plus Fractal alpha products like Cogentiq and Asper.ai). (Fractal Analytics Annual Report 2026; company primer)
  • Customer concentration: No single customer exceeds 20% (Customer A was ~7% in FY2026), but the Fractal.ai segment's top-10 customers were >50% of segment revenue (54.6% in FY2024) — clearing the top-10 gate. (Fractal Analytics Annual Report 2026)
  • Competition: Competes with GSIs (Accenture, TCS, Infosys, Cognizant) and analytics pure-plays (Tiger Analytics, LatentView, EXL); EXL's primer names Fractal as a competitor, but no deal-level displacement was found. (Fractal company primer; EXL company primer)

7. BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)

  • Business: Delivers space-based imagery and geospatial intelligence via its Spectra software platform and Gen-3 satellite constellation. (BKSY FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: "U.S. federal government and agencies" was 43% of FY2025 revenue (60% in FY2024), with the NRO the only named revenue-impacting customer. (BKSY FY2025 10-K; BKSY FY2024 10-K)
  • Competition: Rivals include Planet Labs, Satellogic, Airbus, Maxar and ICEYE/Capella; Planet's own 10-K names BlackSky, and Satellogic signed a Maxar/Vantor distribution deal. (Planet Labs FY2025 10-K; Satellogic FY2025 10-K)

8. Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB)

  • Business: Cybersecurity software vendor — exposure/vulnerability management (Nessus, Tenable One, Cloud Security, Identity Exposure), sold ~94% through channel partners. (TENB FY2025 10-K)
  • Customer concentration: Distributor Ingram Micro was 32% of FY2025 revenue (34%/36% prior years); no single end-user customer exceeded 2%. (TENB FY2025 10-K)
  • Competition: Competes with Qualys, Rapid7, CrowdStrike, Microsoft and Wiz; non-exclusive channel means distributors "may have stronger relationships with our competitors." (TENB FY2025 10-K; TENB Q3 2025 earnings call)

9. Opera Limited (OPRA)

  • Business: Develops web browsers (Opera One, Opera GX, Opera Mini) monetized mainly through search-referral and advertising revenue. (OPRA FY2025 20-F; company primer)
  • Customer concentration: Google ("Customer group 1"), Opera's search-distribution partner, was ~33% of FY2025 revenue. (OPRA FY2025 20-F)
  • Competition: Google Chrome, Apple Safari, Microsoft Edge and Samsung Internet dominate OS/device-level default distribution — and Google is simultaneously Opera's largest partner and a browser rival. (OPRA FY2025 20-F; company primer)

10. KRAFTON, Inc. (A259960)

  • Business: South Korean video-game developer/publisher built around the PUBG franchise (PUBG Mobile and PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS). (KRAFTON Annual Report 2025; company primer)
  • Customer concentration: "Major customer A" (inferred to be Tencent, the PUBG Mobile publisher) was ~41.6% of FY2025 revenue and ~51.1% in FY2024. (KRAFTON Annual Report 2025)
  • Competition: Tencent's own Delta Force Mobile and Garena's Free Fire compete directly — and Tencent both licenses PUBG in China and publishes the rival Delta Force in-house. (KRAFTON Q3/Q4 2025 earnings calls; Tencent Q4 2025 earnings call)

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