> [Portrait Research index](https://portraitresearch.com/llms.txt) [Canonical page](https://portraitresearch.com/easel/) Easel # Your AI analyst for real research work Give Easel a company, thesis or financial question. It investigates the evidence and numbers, developing analysis you can review and build on. [Book a demo](https://portraitresearch.com/demo/) [Request free trial](https://portraitresearch.com/request-trial/) ## Easel research workflows ### Example: Investigate a company Investigate Expedia Group (EXPE). Explain what is changing in the business, test whether B2B growth is improving earnings quality, and identify the evidence that challenges the investment case. Finish with the questions we still need to resolve. 1. **Read the primary evidence**Q2 release, filing and guidance 2. **Reconcile earnings quality**Growth, mix and cash conversion 3. **Test the variant view**AI distribution and thesis falsifiers 4. **Develop the company assessment**Findings, evidence and open questions ### Expedia Group — growth, earnings quality and the open questions **Research stance:** positive earnings inflection; valuation still needs underwriting. Q2 shows broader growth, faster profit conversion and stronger cash generation, while AI distribution remains the key unresolved risk. #### What is changing in the business EXPE is beginning to look less like a mature OTA defending consumer traffic and more like a scaled travel platform whose B2B engine can compound through shifts in discovery. Q2 gross bookings grew 12%, revenue 14%, adjusted EBITDA 23% and free cash flow 39%.1 The mix matters: B2B bookings grew 21% and B2B revenue 23%, while B2C bookings still grew 8%.2 Management then raised FY26 revenue growth to 9–10% and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 1.5–1.75 points.3 The variant view is that B2B growth and operating discipline can expand earnings faster than bookings even if consumer search fragments. The thesis fails if AI-led acquisition weakens B2C economics faster than B2B can diversify them. B2B revenue**+23%** Free cash flow**+39%** FY26 revenue guide**+9–10%** #### Evidence and interpretation **Reported:** B2B revenue grew 23%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 196 bps and free cash flow reached $1.28B.1, 2 **Interpretation:** the near-term earnings algorithm is becoming less dependent on consumer booking growth alone. B2B distribution and cost discipline provide a second route to earnings growth while the company adapts to AI-led discovery. #### What would change the view - **Consumer deterioration:** booked room nights or B2C bookings decelerate while direct marketing intensity rises. - **B2B quality weakens:** revenue growth remains strong but segment EBITDA fails to scale with it. - **Guidance conversion misses:** revenue or margin lands below the raised FY26 range without a clear macro explanation. #### Open research questions Bridge B2B and B2C growth to segment EBITDA, compare marketing intensity and room-night growth with BKNG and ABNB, and test the raised guide against consensus and the current valuation. #### Evidence behind the call Expedia Group raised FY26 revenue growth to 9–10% and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 1.5–1.75 points.[3](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000051/earningsrelease-q22026.htm) 3 · Expedia Group Q2 2026 Earnings Release · Business Outlook, p. 2 Source ### Expedia Group Q2 2026 Earnings Release SEC Exhibit 99.1 · Aug 5, 2026 · 14 pages [Read the original earnings release on SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324424/000132442426000051/earningsrelease-q22026.htm) ### Example: Pressure-test a thesis Pressure-test our Fastenal operating-leverage thesis using reported quarters from FY2023 through Q2 2026. Is SG&A leverage still offsetting mix pressure? Deliver a source-backed PNG with the margin trend, latest-quarter bridge and measurable thesis breakers. 1. **Read 14 reported quarters**FY2023 Q1–FY2026 Q2 2. **Reconcile the margin bridge**Gross margin, SG&A and operating income 3. **Pressure-test the offset**Management drivers and measurable falsifiers 4. **Create the PNG exhibit**Quarterly trend, bridge and source notes ### Fastenal — can operating leverage keep offsetting mix? **Bottom line:** The offset still works, but the cushion has narrowed. SG&A leverage absorbed gross-margin pressure in Q2 2026, leaving operating margin at 21.02% — just **+6 bps YoY**, versus +77 bps a year earlier. The thesis now depends on how much fixed-cost leverage survives as growth slows.1 #### The latest-quarter bridge | Metric | Q2’25 | Q2’26 | YoY contribution | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Gross margin | 45.32% | 44.56% | −76 bps | | SG&A / sales | 24.36% | 23.54% | +82 bps leverage | | Operating margin | 20.96% | 21.02% | +6 bps | **−76 bps of gross-margin pressure + 82 bps of SG&A leverage = +6 bps of operating-margin expansion.** Margins and changes are calculated from reported dollars; figures shown are rounded.1 #### Why the cushion is thinning - **Mix and price/cost both weigh on gross margin.** Larger-account mix remains a structural drag. Price/cost added roughly 40 bps of pressure in Q2, and management did not expect the gap to close fully in the second half. - **A masking tailwind has rolled off.** Fastener-expansion and supplier initiatives had offset mix dilution through Q1’26; that benefit anniversaried early in Q2. - **Productivity is carrying the bridge.** Base-pay/FTE productivity and occupancy leverage absorbed the drag, partly offset by faster-growing bonuses and commissions. Management commentary: Q2 2026 earnings call and recent earnings releases.2 #### What would break the thesis These are research tests, not company guidance: 1. **Operating margin contracts YoY for at least two consecutive quarters.** SG&A gains no longer cover gross-margin losses. 2. **Gross-margin compression exceeds 75–80 bps YoY** without a price/cost recovery. 3. **SG&A leverage stalls or reverses as growth slows.** Q4’24, when operating margin fell to 18.9%, is the reference case. 4. **Incremental operating margin stays below roughly 20%.** That would challenge management’s ability to deliver the roughly 24% it targeted in Q2’26. **Prepared the exhibit:** 14 quarters of margin history, the Q2’26 bridge, and the drivers and thesis breakers, with reported figures separated from interpretation. **Exhibit (PNG):** [**Fastenal Operating-Leverage Exhibit.png**](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-operating-leverage.c58bfebaabc7.png) 1 · Fastenal earnings releases, FY2023 Q1–FY2026 Q2. 2 · Q2 2026 earnings call and Q1 2026 / Q4 2025 earnings releases. **Fastenal Operating-Leverage Exhibit.png** ![Fastenal operating-leverage exhibit, FY2023 Q1–FY2026 Q2. Quarterly margin history, a Q2 2026 bridge of −76 bps gross margin plus 82 bps SG&A leverage equalling 6 bps operating-margin expansion, and management drivers and thesis breakers.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-operating-leverage.3bf18baf3ae4.webp) ### Example: Compare the financials Compare Fastenal’s earnings and cash flow under Bear, Base and Bull assumptions through FY2030. Start with reported financials, separate assumptions from facts, and show the impact of margins and working capital in an Excel workbook. 1. **Establish the reported base**FY2025 annual report and H1 2026 results 2. **Build the three operating cases**Revenue, margins, working capital and capex 3. **Calculate earnings and cash flow**Annual projections and two-variable sensitivities 4. **Deliver the Excel model**Linked formulas, source inputs and 25 reconciliations ### Fastenal earnings and cash-flow scenarios Built the workbook. The Base case reaches **$1.82 EPS and $1.79bn of annual free cash flow in FY2030**. But cash does not grow in step with earnings: receivables, inventory and reinvestment absorb part of the operating improvement. #### The three scenarios | FY2030 output | Bear | Base | Bull | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | $11.06bn | $13.07bn | $14.57bn | | Operating margin | 19.4% | 21.3% | 22.9% | | Diluted EPS | $1.41 | $1.82 | $2.19 | | Free cash flow | $1.36bn | $1.79bn | $2.14bn | | Cumulative FCF, FY2026–30 | $5.78bn | $7.18bn | $8.09bn | These are illustrative analyst scenarios, not company guidance. Reported FY2025 figures anchor the model; H1 2026 results expose what the FY2026 forecast requires in the second half. #### What you are underwriting - **Bear:** revenue compounds at 6.2% through FY2030. Gross margin falls to 43.5%, SG&A remains 24.1% of sales, and slower collections and inventory turns weigh on cash. - **Base:** 9.8% revenue growth compounds with modest expense leverage. Gross margin settles at 44.4%; SG&A falls to 23.1% of sales. Improving inventory turns release part of the cash needed to grow. - **Bull:** 12.2% revenue growth combines with a 45.1% gross margin and stronger SG&A leverage. Better collections, inventory turns and supplier terms support cash conversion. #### The cash cost of growth In FY2030, **five extra receivable days cost the Base case $179m of cash**. Ten extra inventory days cost $199m. Neither change reduces EPS. By comparison, a 100-bp gross-margin improvement adds $135m of FCF, including its effect on inventory and payables. The sensitivity sheet varies FY2030 growth and operating margin while holding FY2029 fixed. Faster growth can reduce that year’s cash flow because the incremental working-capital requirement arrives immediately; the earnings benefit and the cash benefit are different questions. All three cases recalculate from editable annual assumptions. The six sheets include the operating build, cash-flow bridge, sensitivity matrices, reported source inputs and reconciliation checks. FCF is operating cash flow less gross capex plus disposal proceeds, before dividends, buybacks and debt flows. The model is ready to inspect: [Fastenal Scenario Model.xlsx](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-scenario-model.4c5b97c0c798.xlsx) **Fastenal Scenario Model.xlsx** ![Summary sheet from the delivered workbook: Bear, Base and Bull projections, annual free cash flow, native charts and the Base earnings-to-cash bridge.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-scenarios-summary.b37a6d3d0e58.webp) ![Sensitivities sheet from the delivered workbook: methodology, Base assumptions, FY2030 free cash flow and EPS across revenue growth and operating margin assumptions. The centre cells reproduce the Base case.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-scenarios-sensitivities.fc33f99cc29c.webp) ### Example: Prepare for a management meeting Prepare for a management meeting with Vertiv. Use the investment case to identify the questions that matter most: delivery, cash conversion and acquisition returns. Explain what each answer would change, and include the committee brief as a reading pack. 1. **Review the latest company evidence**Results, filings and acquisition terms 2. **Test the investment case**Delivery, cash quality and capital allocation 3. **Assess valuation and downside**Explicit assumptions and return hurdle 4. **Prepare the cited document**Four pages, decision matrix and primary sources The meeting should test **whether demand is converting into delivery and durable cash flow**. I’ve included the four-page committee brief as the reading pack, with reported evidence separated from illustrative valuation assumptions. Three questions to take into the meeting: 1. **Delivery:** Which constraints could delay converting the order book into revenue, and what would signal that those constraints are easing? 2. **Cash quality:** How much cash conversion depends on customer advances rather than repeatable operating improvements? 3. **Acquisition returns:** What milestones should we use to judge UIG integration and returns on the capital committed? Use the answers to revisit delivery assumptions, normalize cash generation and assess the acquisition case. The reading pack includes the downside analysis and four linked primary sources behind these questions. Ready for review: [Vertiv IC Brief.docx](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/vertiv-ic-brief.5ef0b3b42975.docx) **Vertiv IC Brief.docx** ![Page 1 of Vertiv IC Brief.docx: Decision, investment thesis, published evidence and valuation discipline.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/page-1.2a648ad2a1bd.webp) ![Page 2 of Vertiv IC Brief.docx: Underwriting cases, valuation calculations, cash quality and acquisition terms.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/page-2-194w.ccc55507bd06.webp) ![Page 3 of Vertiv IC Brief.docx: Decision matrix connecting assumptions, evidence, invalidation tests and consequences.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/page-3.3e5abe3651fe.webp) ![Page 4 of Vertiv IC Brief.docx: Four linked primary sources, open research questions and definitions.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/page-4-194w.e27c2209b4b4.webp) ## Built on Portrait’s investment-research system. Easel combines Portrait’s financial intelligence with your context and the research methods you want it to follow. ### Draw on Portrait’s financial intelligence. Investigate companies using filings, transcripts, market data and the financial sources available to your account. ### Delegate multi-step investigations. Easel plans the investigation and works through the steps needed to address the question. ### Review the evidence behind findings. Follow source links from the analysis to inspect the evidence and check the context behind material conclusions. ### Bring your own context. Add files, notes and existing Portrait research to guide what Easel investigates and how it develops the analysis. ### Apply your research methods. Use reusable Skills to define the checklists, source priorities and output requirements Easel should follow. ### Build on previous work. Return to saved conversations and keep useful outputs in My Library to continue the analysis. ## Turn investment questions into reports, spreadsheets and charts. ### Develop the investment case in a research report. Examine the business, weigh competing arguments and bring the findings together in company reports, investment memos and meeting briefs. Vertiv IC Brief.docx ![Vertiv Investment Committee Brief: investment case, reported evidence, valuation assumptions and questions for the committee.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/vertiv-ic-brief/page-1.2a648ad2a1bd.webp) ### Work through the financials in a spreadsheet. Compare peers, reconcile reported results and organize the numbers behind your analysis in a spreadsheet you can build on. ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/xlsx.e7ba3d0a5372.svg) Fastenal Scenario Model.xlsx | Line item | Unit | FY2024 A | FY2025 A | FY2026 E | FY2027 E | FY2028 E | FY2029 E | FY2030 E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fastenal · Base case USD millions · A: actual · E: estimate | | | | | | | | | | Revenue | $m | 7,546.0 | 8,200.5 | 9,348.6 | 10,283.4 | 11,208.9 | 12,105.7 | 13,074.1 | | Revenue growth | % | — | 8.7% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | | Cost of sales | $m | 4,144.1 | 4,509.3 | 5,188.5 | 5,717.6 | 6,232.2 | 6,730.7 | 7,269.2 | | Gross profit | $m | 3,401.9 | 3,691.2 | 4,160.1 | 4,565.8 | 4,976.8 | 5,374.9 | 5,804.9 | | Gross margin | % | 45.1% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 44.4% | | SG&A | $m | 1,891.9 | 2,035.5 | 2,234.3 | 2,426.9 | 2,622.9 | 2,808.5 | 3,020.1 | | SG&A / revenue | % | 25.1% | 24.8% | 23.9% | 23.6% | 23.4% | 23.2% | 23.1% | | Operating income | $m | 1,510.0 | 1,655.7 | 1,925.8 | 2,139.0 | 2,353.9 | 2,566.4 | 2,784.8 | | Net interest income / (expense) | $m | (1.9) | (0.7) | – | – | – | – | – | | Income before taxes | $m | 1,508.1 | 1,655.0 | 1,925.8 | 2,139.0 | 2,353.9 | 2,566.4 | 2,784.8 | | Income tax expense | $m | 357.5 | 396.6 | 473.7 | 526.2 | 579.1 | 631.3 | 685.1 | | Net income | $m | 1,150.6 | 1,258.4 | 1,452.1 | 1,612.8 | 1,774.8 | 1,935.1 | 2,099.7 | | Effective tax rate | % | 23.7% | 24.0% | 24.6% | 24.6% | 24.6% | 24.6% | 24.6% | | Diluted weighted-average shares | m | 1,148.6 | 1,150.3 | 1,150.6 | 1,150.6 | 1,150.6 | 1,150.6 | 1,150.6 | | Diluted EPS | $/share | $1.00 | $1.09 | $1.26 | $1.40 | $1.54 | $1.68 | $1.82 | | Operating margin | % | 20.0% | 20.2% | 20.6% | 20.8% | 21.0% | 21.2% | 21.3% | ### Explore financial trends and comparisons through charts. Chart growth, margins, valuations and estimate revisions to examine how a business is changing and how it compares with its peers. Fastenal Operating-Leverage Exhibit.png ![Fastenal operating-leverage PNG exhibit: quarterly gross, SG&A and operating margins, an operating-margin bridge and year-on-year changes, from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026.](https://portraitresearch.com/static/easel-artifacts/fastenal-operating-leverage.3bf18baf3ae4.webp) ## Delegate research in Slack or Microsoft Teams. Ask Easel to investigate a question, review its findings and follow up in the same conversation, with the context you choose to share. [Explore all integrations](https://portraitresearch.com/integrations/) [Add to Slack](https://slack.portraitresearch.com/slack/install) [Set up Microsoft Teams](https://portraitresearch.com/documentation/integrations/portrait-teams/) **\# research** ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/chat-circle-dots.006e1ba9d038.svg)8![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/headphones.ae7320e6f31b.svg) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/analyst-avatar-v1.be75d4a2ac28.webp) **Amelia Ruiz**9:41 AM @Portrait Give me the key debates around ATMU and its direct competitors. Put the bull and bear case side by side for each. **Portrait**Agent9:42 AM **I’ve framed the work around three decision questions:** OE demand durability, aftermarket mix, and pricing versus the peer set. Each debate separates the bull case, bear case, supporting evidence, and the signal that would change the view. [ATMU debate map · Portrait Review](https://portraitresearch.com/deep-research/) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/analyst-avatar-v1.be75d4a2ac28.webp) **Amelia Ruiz**9:45 AM @Portrait Separate the company-specific evidence from the sector signals. Which part of the argument still needs testing? **Portrait**Agent9:46 AM **Keep two evidence tracks.** Atmus’s filings and calls address its aftermarket mix, pricing and execution. Peer results and industry disclosures test whether demand is moving across the sector. The open question is attribution: do margin gains persist after separating mix and pricing from the cycle? The next step is to reconcile each driver against the company’s reported bridge. **\# earnings** ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/chat-circle-dots.006e1ba9d038.svg)6![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/headphones.ae7320e6f31b.svg) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/teams-analyst-avatar-nadia-v1.cfa027a59667.webp) **Nadia Chen**7:58 AM @Portrait Put together an earnings preview for NVDA. I need the setup, key swing factors, and what would change the thesis. **Portrait**Agent7:59 AM **The preview is organised around four swing factors:** data-centre demand, product ramp and supply, gross-margin cadence, and guidance versus consensus. For each, the Review shows prior management language, the current setup, and disconfirming evidence. [NVDA earnings preview · Portrait Review](https://portraitresearch.com/deep-research/) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/teams-analyst-avatar-nadia-v1.cfa027a59667.webp) **Nadia Chen**8:02 AM @Portrait Add the last two calls and flag where the wording changed, not just the numbers. **Portrait**Agent8:03 AM **Added a call-to-call language tracker.** It distinguishes repeated wording from new qualifiers and links every change to the exact transcript passage. The numbers remain in the setup table; the narrative changes now sit beside the debate they affect. **\# portfolio** ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/chat-circle-dots.006e1ba9d038.svg)5![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/headphones.ae7320e6f31b.svg) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/pm-avatar-daniel-v1.d4c59276a410.webp) **Daniel Foster**4:16 PM @Portrait Set up a Monitor for NVDA. Track evidence that supports or weakens our data-centre demand and margin thesis. **Portrait**Agent4:17 PM **I’ve drafted a Monitor for review.** Its signals cover data-centre demand, product ramp and supply, gross-margin cadence, and guidance changes across company documents, news, and the web. Delivery is set to a daily digest. Create it with these settings? ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/pm-avatar-daniel-v1.d4c59276a410.webp) **Daniel Foster**4:20 PM @Portrait Make delivery real time and make disconfirming evidence explicit. Then create it. **Portrait**Agent4:21 PM **Created [NVDA · data-centre thesis](https://portraitresearch.com/monitors/).** It will evaluate the selected sources against the approved signals and post matching updates to Inbox, with real-time email alerts enabled. **\# investment-committee** ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/chat-circle-dots.006e1ba9d038.svg)7![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/headphones.ae7320e6f31b.svg) ![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/analyst-avatar-maya-v1.ef659d4bac7b.webp) **Maya Brooks**10:11 AM @Portrait Write an investment memo on Cadence Design Systems. Add a section on recent earnings calls and forward guidance, and deliver the final memo as a PDF. **Portrait**Agent10:12 AM **The Deep Research brief is scoped and running.** It uses recent filings, earnings calls, forward guidance, and your uploaded notes. The new call-and-guidance section will separate what changed, what was repeated, and what could invalidate the thesis. I’ll post the cited Portrait Review and appendix here when they’re ready. **Portrait**Agent10:26 AM **The investment memo is complete.** I’ve saved it to My Library and linked the final PDF here: [![](https://portraitresearch.com/static/img/easel-ecosystem/phosphor/file-pdf-fill.5c96dce7b064.svg)Cadence Design Systems — Investment Memo.pdf](https://portraitresearch.com/documentation/integrations/portrait-slack/). It is prepared for investment committee review, with the investment thesis, bull and bear cases, recent earnings-call changes, forward guidance, catalysts, risks, and a source appendix. ## Give Easel the brief by email. Send your question with the relevant context or attachments. Easel replies with the analysis, and you can continue the work in the same email thread. [Learn more](https://portraitresearch.com/documentation/integrations/portrait-email/) ## Run recurring research without repeating the brief. Set a daily, weekday or weekly schedule, run around each company’s earnings date, or run once at a chosen time. Easel runs the research again at the time you choose. ### Schedule Easel Research Task name Weekly industry review Research prompt Review this week’s disclosures across our industrial distribution coverage. Compare demand, pricing and margins. Separate new evidence from recurring commentary and flag what changes the investment debate. Schedule DailyWeekdays**Weekly** Day Friday Time 08:00 Timezone London