Use this pattern when you can state the mechanism behind a thesis and the evidence that would support or weaken it.
In the assisted flow, select a company and describe the thesis. Portrait proposes editable signals; review them before creating the Monitor.
Configure the pattern
- Create a Monitor and add the companies covered by the thesis.
- State the causal mechanism rather than only the conclusion.
- Add signals for both supporting and disconfirming evidence.
- Choose the relevant source types and an email cadence that matches the decision. A company-scoped Monitor offers Real-time, Daily digest, and Weekly digest.
- Review the proposed or manual configuration before saving. On accounts with usage enforcement, review the displayed usage estimate too. If Portrait rejects the projected commitment, it creates no Monitor; review Settings → Usage and reduce the scope or contact your account team.
Example signal:
My thesis is that adoption of AI will increase data-centre buildout and demand for power. Surface evidence that supports or weakens each link in that mechanism, including changes in growth results or expectations. Attribute each update to its source.
Two things make a thesis monitor work: name the specific mechanism you believe in, and ask explicitly for disconfirming evidence as well as supporting evidence.
Verify and refine
Confirm that the saved signals cover both sides of the thesis and that the source set can contain the required evidence. When an update arrives, check whether it addresses the mechanism rather than merely mentioning the topic. Edit a signal that produces repeated irrelevant matches.
An initial Monitor launch brief provides background; it is separate from subsequent matches. See Manage a Monitor to change scope, understand Podcast coverage, or stop ongoing monitoring. Use Export Monitor updates to retain a PDF of the evidence you review.